After a flood of spending and organizing from his party, Democrat Taylor Rehmet edged out Republican Leigh Wambsganss on Saturday in the special election runoff for Texas Senate District 9.
Rehmet’s victory is a boost for Texas Democrats ahead of the November midterm election. And after nearly winning outright last year with little outside help, Rehmet had plenty of outside resources to help push him across the finish line in the runoff. Rehmet pulled in 56% of the vote, at the time the race was conceded by Wambsganss.
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin told Texas Bullpen that Saturday’s win “proves that no Republican seat is safe” in Texas.
“This victory is a warning sign to Republicans across the country. In a Trump +17 district, Republicans had to go all out and still lost this race,” Martin said in a statement. “From now until November, Democrats are keeping our foot on the gas and organizing and competing everywhere, including in Texas and the rest of the Sun Belt.”
Democrats had hoped to flip the seat, for the time being, to gain momentum heading into the regular election this cycle. Republicans were worried about the flood of money that would come into the state if Rehmet had pulled off the upset. And operatives on both sides of the aisle now expect millions of dollars to flow into the state that would not have otherwise.
Rehmet will now occupy the seat for the remainder of the current term, which ends in January. The two candidates will square off again in November for the next term, a contest that significantly favors Wambsganss because of the partisan leaning of the district.
In the North Texas district, GOP candidates on the ballot have more or less a 10-point advantage over their Democratic opponents. That figure is calculated by averaging out the performance in SD-9 of all Republicans who sought statewide office over the past two election cycles — the 2024 presidential and 2022 midterm elections.
The special election occurred after now-former state Sen. Kelly Hancock (R-North Richland Hills) was tapped by Gov. Greg Abbott to serve at acting Texas comptroller. Rehmet nearly won the November special election, falling just short of winning the contest outright by a couple of percentage points..
Early voting turnout ahead of Saturday’s election, was, unsurprisingly, much lower than it was in November, by about 3,300 voters due to its even more irregular date and the cold weather that gripped North Texas.
The runoff’s early in-person vote was 8 points less favorable to Republicans than during the November special election, according to one GOP pollster and data operative who analyzed the voting histories. The mail-in ballot vote was 6 points less favorable.
But much of that difference, that pollster said, was due to an arctic front that swept through the state. Voters who would have otherwise turned out to vote during the early period but didn’t had previously voted in the November special election.
Republicans had the monetary advantage in the race, but Democrats put three times the amount of money into Rehmet’s campaign during the runoff than they did during the November special election.
With Rehmet’s win, the Texas Senate will be a 19 to 12 partisan balance, though it won’t matter legislatively unless Gov. Greg Abbott calls the body in for a special session before the new Legislature takes over in 2027.
