CATTLE CALL

Texas 2026 Primary Insider Survey

Welcome to the Texas Bullpen’s first-ever Cattle Call. We recently asked over 40 top pollsters, political consultants, and politics reporters in Texas to predict and provide commentary about the upcoming March 3 primary.

While their names have been redacted, their thoughts have not. Here’s where our insiders landed when asked about 10 of the most competitive primary races in the state.

U.S. Senate

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, which candidate will finish first?
45 responses
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, the longtime incumbent, faces two opponents in this year's Republican primary: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt.
Ken Paxton
34 picks
John Cornyn
11 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Cornyn and Paxton's greatest fear is a runoff w Wesley.”

Consultant

“Personally Wesley Hunt is the cleaner choice for Republicans, however, his name id will not help. The best thing for Republicans would be a Crockett win assumming Paxton wins. It'll be a Republican loss in November if it is Paxton versus Talarico.”

Other
RUNOFF PREDICTIONS: John Cornyn & Ken Paxton (44 of 45) · John Cornyn & No runoff (1 of 45)
In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, which candidate will finish first?
45 responses
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are the two high-profile candidates vying for their party's nomination to take on the GOP nominee in November.
James Talarico
26 picks
Jasmine Crockett
19 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Anyone who tells you they know what’s going to happen is full of it”

Consultant

“The Democrat race seems to be a toss up at this point. I’m giving the edge to Talarico today, but I could change my mind in a few days.”

Other
RUNOFF PREDICTIONS: No runoff (30 of 45) · Jasmine Crockett & James Talarico (15 of 45)

Texas Attorney General

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary for Texas attorney general, which candidate will finish first?
45 responses
With Paxton running for U.S. Senate, it is an open race for Texas attorney general. U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, state Sens. Mayes Middleton and Joan Huffman, and former DOJ appointee Aaron Reitz are running for the Republican nomination.
Chip Roy
42 picks
Mayes Middleton
3 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Roy finishes first in the primary, expect many millions to flow into the runoff between he and Middleton. Reitz will have to settle for being Attorney General of Twitter.”

Consultant

“Aaron Reitz will endorse Roy. Huffman will back Mayes.”

Consultant

“If this election was on X, it would look very different. Will be very interesting to see if President Trump decides to get in against Chip in a runoff.”

Reporter
RUNOFF PREDICTIONS: Mayes Middleton & Chip Roy (30 of 45) · Aaron Reitz & Chip Roy (6 of 45) · Joan Huffman & Chip Roy (5 of 45) · No runoff (4 of 45)
In the Democratic primary for Texas attorney general, which candidate will finish first?
45 responses
State Sen. Nathan Johnson and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski, who was also the 2022 candidate for attorney general, are running for the Democratic nomination.
Nathan Johnson
31 picks
Joe Jaworski
14 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Crockett voters can carry Tony Box into a runoff…if they know who he is”

Consultant

“I would not be surprised to see very narrow margins heading into a runoff on the Democratic side. The race simply doesn’t have enough salience or spending for someone to get way ahead.”

Other
RUNOFF PREDICTIONS: Joe Jaworski & Nathan Johnson (31 of 45) · No runoff (13 of 45) · Tony Box & Nathan Johnson (1 of 45)

Other Statewide Races

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary for Texas comptroller, which candidate will finish first?
44 responses
Texas Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick and former state Sens. Kelly Hancock and Don Huffines are the Republicans running for Texas comptroller. Hancock is currently serving as acting comptroller after Glenn Hegar, was tapped to serve as chancellor of the Texas A&M University System.
Don Huffines
37 picks
Kelly Hancock
4 picks
Christi Craddick
3 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“The most important race in Texas”

Other

“After years of searching Don may have finally found something he can win. If he does win, we will have no shortage of him and Abbott butting heads over the coming years.”

Consultant
RUNOFF PREDICTIONS: Kelly Hancock & Don Huffines (21 of 44) · Christi Craddick & Don Huffines (12 of 44) · No runoff (9 of 44) · Don Huffines (1 of 44) · Christi Craddick & Kelly Hancock (1 of 44)
In the Republican primary for Texas agriculture commissioner, which candidate will finish first?
43 responses
Longtime incumbent Sid Miller is facing an intraparty challenge from businessman and veteran Nate Sheets.
Sid Miller
37 picks
Nate Sheets
6 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“To those who said Sid’s political career was dead… not so fast my friend.”

Other

“I think often of the 2018 challenge to Sid by lobbyist Trey Blocker (of Nutella pancakes fame). In the Austin bubble, Sid was almost assuredly going to lose. Not only did he win, but Blocker came in third. There's a lesson in there.”

Reporter

Congress

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary for TX-9, which candidate will finish first?
43 responses
Alex Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain are the two frontrunners for the newly-drawn congressional seat that is one of five projected pick ups for Republicans after last year's mid-decade redistricting by the Texas Legislature.
Alex Mealer
22 picks
Briscoe Cain
21 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Club for Growth plays to win. Stockman is underperforming - most of his supporters have died.”

Other

“Brisket will never taste the same.”

Other
RUNOFF PREDICTIONS: Briscoe Cain & Alex Mealer (30 of 43) · No runoff (11 of 43) · Briscoe Cain & Steve Stockman (1 of 43)
In the Democratic primary for TX-18, which candidate will finish first?
42 responses
The race features two members of Congress: U.S. Rep. Al Green, a longtime incumbent whose district was largely folded into the new CD-18 as part of the redistricting process, and U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee, who recently won a special election runoff to represent this seat, replacing the late Sylvester Turner.
Christian Menefee
34 picks
Al Green
8 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Al Green did not deserve to go out like this, but then again I always thought he was a soul singer from the 70s.”

Other

“Green may be well known but I think continuous campaigning helps Menefee and the specter of Congress critters past will weigh on voters minds in the booth”

Consultant
RUNOFF PREDICTIONS: No runoff (24 of 42) · Al Green & Christian Menefee (17 of 42) · Christian Menefee (1 of 42)
In the Democratic primary for TX-33, which candidate will finish first?
43 responses
U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson and former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, are locked in a contentious race for this open, Democratic-leaning congressional seat. Johnson's original seat was redrawn to favor Republicans under the new map.
Colin Allred
26 picks
Julie Johnson
17 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Name ID name ID name ID”

Reporter

“Colin is seen as the hometown boy for the local activist...but Julie is the more exciting for the far left. This will be a measure of which faction is larger.”

Consultant
RUNOFF PREDICTIONS: Colin Allred & Julie Johnson (33 of 43) · No runoff (10 of 43)
In the Republican primary for TX-34, which candidate will finish first?
35 responses
Former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores and Eric Flores are battling for the GOP nomination in this district. Eric Flores is the Trump-endorsed candidate this time, though Mayra Flores had the president's backing in previous bids for the seat. The winner will take on Democrat Vicente Gonzalez in November.
Mayra Flores
19 picks
Eric Flores
15 picks
Luis Buentello
1 pick
Best Quotes on This Race

“One Flores could be mistaken for the other”

Reporter

“Who's who? Who can tell?”

Consultant
RUNOFF PREDICTIONS: No runoff (19 of 35) · Mayra Flores & Eric Flores (14 of 35) · Eric Flores (1 of 35)