U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett released an internal poll showing her up 13% on state Rep. James Talarico in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate on Wednesday, an attempt to counter a separate poll from last week that showed the state lawmaker ahead of the congresswoman
The survey, conducted by Terrance Woodbury of HIT Strategies, put Crockett at 46% to Talarico’s 33%, with 21% of respondents undecided.
“This campaign will show up all across this state in urban, suburban, and rural areas because this coalition is for everyone who’s had enough,” Crockett said in a statement sent to press alongside a slide deck of the poll’s toplines.
“Voters know and trust that I am Texas Tough and we will win this together.”
The poll’s sample size consisted of 1,005 likely Democratic primary voters and newly registered voters who participated in the 2024 general election, the latter demographic being key towards Democrats expanding their support base to win in red Texas, per the campaign.
Net favorable ratings among that group of respondents put Crockett at +58% to Talarico’s +40%. The number of respondents who said they didn’t know Talarico was over one-third to Crockett’s 18%.
A third question fielded by the Crockett campaign showed that voters across every demographic surveyed said Crockett, not Talarico, would make them more likely to vote in the general election.
Last week, an Emerson College poll put Talarico 9 points ahead of Crockett, and showed both Democrats even with Attorney General Ken Paxton, the current front-runner for the GOP nomination.
That Emerson poll differed from most other polls that have come out on the race, with Crockett leading because of her generally higher name identification among the Democratic primary electorate; the same factor is at play in the Republican contest for Texas attorney general, with U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) advantaged by the years he’s spent on cable television under the national spotlight.
On a Tuesday evening press call, the Crockett campaign wasn’t shy about criticizing the Emerson poll, Emerson’s overall sample size was 1,165 — plenty for a statewide race in Texas — but broken down further, the Democratic primary sample was only 413. The GOP sample was 550.
Both are less than the typically desired 800-person sample for a Texas statewide race. It was also gauging registered voters, an acceptable enough metric when it’s too early to know who will actually vote.
Texas Bullpen asked two respected Republican pollsters in Texas their thoughts on the Emerson poll last week. One said he was “skeptical,” while the other said he thought it was “highly credible.”
Both the Crockett and Talarico campaigns are jockeying for the nomination, insisting that they are the candidate withthe momentum to win the Democratic primary. And both recognize their need to expand the typical pool of Democratic voters in November to even have a chance to win in red Texas.
Talarico has pointed to early polling data to show that he’s the most capable candidate to do that this year, making a similar case to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, the GOP incumbent trying to fend off multiple challenges from within his own party. Crockett’s goal of releasing the poll was aimed at showing she’s actually the candidate best positioned to take on any Republican.
Around and around we go until March 3 — the day of reckoning for both sides of the campaign ledger.
