CATTLE CALL

Texas 2026 Primary Runoff Insider Survey

Welcome to the Texas Bullpen’s second round of Cattle Call. We recently asked over 30 top pollsters, political consultants, legislative staffers, and politics reporters in Texas to predict and comment on the upcoming March 3 primary.

While their names have been redacted, their thoughts have not. Here’s where our insiders landed when asked about some of the most high-profile runoffs on the May 26 ballot.

U.S. Senate

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate in Texas, which candidate will finish first?
34 responses
Ken Paxton
22 picks
John Cornyn
12 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Paxton wins by 10”

Consultant

“...Polls are all over the place, but that is because sampling for runoffs is highly speculative/ discretionary. The surveys we haven’t seen tell us as much about the race as the ones we have seen...”

Pollster

“Be prepared to have some clenched cheeks most of the night”

Consultant

Texas Attorney General

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary runoff for Texas attorney general, which candidate will finish first?
34 responses
Mayes Middleton
30 picks
Chip Roy
4 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Middleton is the clear favorite. His primary lead plus the Reitz endorsement make it very difficult for Roy to close the gap, even if Huffman's voters break slightly toward Roy.”

Consultant

“It's an undercard no one cares about because whoever wins will be so vastly better than the current AG that everyone's kind of okay with whatever happens.”

Consultant

“Chip has a shot, but Mayes likely takes it.”

Consultant
In the Democratic primary runoff for Texas attorney general, which candidate will finish first?
31 responses
Nathan Johnson
29 picks
Joe Jaworski
2 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Nathan Johnson had such a commanding lead coming out of the Primary that I’m honestly surprised Jaworski did not do an honorable bow out.”

Other

“Johnson should win big and also show up much bigger in November than folks expect.”

Consultant

“Johnson will have a much easier time working with the rest of the Democratic slate than Jaworski. The personalities clash big there.”

Other

Texas Railroad Commissioner

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary runoff for Texas railroad commissioner, which candidate will finish first?
34 responses
Jim Wright
19 picks
Bo French
15 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Bo is a menace.”

Consultant

“Bo French is like the most wild card to ever wild card. Dude could make it to the moon or explode on the launch pad and I could never guess which one until it happens.”

Other

“No real analysis here. I could flip a coin. A lot of voters do. Worth noting nobody saw Wright's 2020 upset win”

Reporter

Texas 9th Congressional District

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary runoff for Texas 9th Congressional District, which candidate will finish first?
34 responses
Alex Mealer
26 picks
Briscoe Cain
8 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Cain has been out of position the entire time. Can’t raise the cash.”

Consultant

“Just feels like Trump sealed Briscoe’s fate on this one. That’s rough, buddy.”

Other

Texas 18th Congressional District

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Democratic primary runoff for Texas 18th Congressional District, which candidate will finish first?
30 responses
Christian Menefee
27 picks
Al Green
3 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“If the voters really choose to elect the man that has held elected office since Jimmy Carter was president, I truly know nothing about the average voter”

Consultant

“The rise of the younger generation in the Democrat primary electorate is almost complete.”

Consultant

“Never have I ever been more grateful to *not* get to vote in an election.”

Other

Texas 19th Congressional District

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary runoff for Texas 19th Congressional District, which candidate will finish first?
24 responses
Tom Sell
19 picks
Abraham Enriquez
5 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“When will these MAGA influencers learn they aren’t Donald Trump and can’t win by having the most post on social media? Take a look at Abrahams FEC reports, dozens of “consultants” taking advantage of his lack of experience in the real world.”

Consultant

“Unless the ballots printed somehow leave Sell's name off entirely, he'll win running away.”

Consultant

“Abbott’s endorsement could backfire on him.”

Consultant

Texas 33rd Congressional District

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Democratic primary runoff for Texas 33rd Congressional District, which candidate will finish first?
31 responses
Colin Allred
19 picks
Julie Johnson
12 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Colin going negative is a sign things are going well. Its competitive but Julie should win with comfortable margins”

Consultant

“I’m genuinely shocked that folks think Allred’s got the juice, but it looks like Julie Johnson just doesn’t have enough incumbency to protect her from a pretty anemic challenge.”

Other

“Everybody in TX-33 loses no matter the outcome.”

Consultant

Texas 35th Congressional District

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary runoff for Texas 35th Congressional District, which candidate will finish first?
30 responses
John Lujan
16 picks
Carlos De La Cruz
14 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Never bet against John Lujan.”

Consultant

“Abbott endorsed Lujan, which means De La Cruz will win.”

Consultant

“The surge of late money will put De La Cruz over the top”

Reporter

Texas 38th Congressional District

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the Republican primary runoff for Texas 38th Congressional District, which candidate will finish first?
29 responses
Jon Bonck
26 picks
Shelly deZevallos
3 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“This seems like a competition with the wackiest sounding name. I’m taking Shelly”

Consultant

“And Shelly should have dropped out. She had no path to victory in the runoff.”

Reporter

“Bonck wins this one big.”

Consultant