The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate got even more interesting Thursday with the release of a new poll that shows the two candidates in the race, Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, nearly tied ahead of the March 3 primary.
Texas Public Opinion Research, a nonpartisan polling firm run by Democratic operative Luke Warford, released its latest poll, which puts Crockett one point ahead of Talarico, 38% to 37%. Of those surveyed, 21% said they’re undecided. Talarico edged out Crockett 38% to 36% when respondents were asked which candidate is more likely to appeal to crossover voters.
“Texas Democrats are saying loud and clear that they want a candidate who puts the general election in play by both appealing to Trump voters and energizing the Democratic base,” Warford said in a news release. “Both Crockett and Talarico supporters believe their candidate possesses those qualities, with an advantage to Talarico on winning new voters and an advantage to Crockett on base mobilization.”
The survey, conducted by Slingshot Strategies, polled 1,290 likely Democratic primary voters with an oversample of Latinos totaling 300. It was conducted Jan. 14-21.
Per the poll, Crockett has a 14-point higher favorability rating among respondents, due primarily to her higher name ID, according to Warford during a briefing with reporters Thursday.
Crockett, who has served in the U.S. House since 2023, has become known as a firebrand for Democrats, often going viral on social media over her remarks or interactions with political opponents during congressional hearings. Talarico, who has served in the Texas House since 2019, has meanwhile adopted a more temperamentally middle-of-the-road approach, saying repeatedly during this year’s primary race that he has no interest in attacking Crockett.
Thursday’s poll is notable as it differs substantially from the previous two polls in the race.
Earlier this month, Crockett’s campaign released an internal poll showing her ahead of Talarico by 13 points. Another poll, released by Emerson College, showed Talarico ahead of Crockett by 9 points.
One external factor that could underscore the shift illustrated by Thursday’s poll is that Crockett is preparing to go negative against Talarico, indicating she isn’t confident enough about her position to totally ignore her opponent.
Priority items ranked by respondents, in order, were: affordability; health care access and cost; Social Security and Medicare; economic growth; democracy and voting rights; immigration; and public safety.
Asked how important it is that the Democratic nominee win over voters who supported President Donald Trump, 88% said it is either very or somewhat important.
In down-ballot races for Democrats, state lawmakers seeking higher office are ahead of other candidates in those contests.
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) leads the gubernatorial primary by a wide margin at 29%, with the next-closest candidate, Chris Bell, down at 4%.
And in the primary for attorney general, state Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) leads with 10% to Joe Jaworski’s 5%.
