CATTLE CALL

Texas 2026 General Election Insider Survey

Welcome to our third and final round of Cattle Call for the year. We asked over 60 pollsters, political consultants, and reporters about the Nov. 3 election.

U.S. Senate

Republican Democrat Neutral
In Texas' U.S. Senate race, which candidate will finish first?
61 responses
James Talarico
38 picks
Ken Paxton
23 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“We're f*cked every which way but right.”

Consultant

“John Cornyn vs James Talarico would be the Texas Longhorns vs UTSA all over again. Nominating Ken Paxton is what will possibly allow statewide Democrats out of the wilderness since the Cowboys were relevant.”

Consultant

“There'll be plenty of nose-holding in the voting booth.”

Consultant

“I wrote in Nick Sortor”

Other

“For all the high drama, the truth is that James Talarico has not run a good enough campaign to win the state of Texas.”

Consultant

Statewide

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the race for Texas governor, which candidate will finish first?
62 responses
Greg Abbott
58 picks
Gina Hinojosa
4 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“The real story no one is talking about is how poorly Abbott is polling. It's him and Paxton at the bottom. All others are polling better than those two.”

Consultant

“Come at the King you must not miss.”

Consultant

“Not necessarily commentary on the race, but we are all witnessing in real time what happens when a candidate not ready for prime time experiences unexpected success and momentum, and the ensuing break with reality that causes. Can you bully the DGA chair into investing in your race? Survey says - no.”

Consultant

“If the data center and flock concerns happened two months later, Gina would win. Since they didn't, Abbott wins in a squeaker.”

Consultant
In the race for Texas lieutenant governor, which candidate will finish first?
62 responses
Dan Patrick
56 picks
Vikki Goodwin
6 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“What is a Vikki Goodwin?”

Reporter

“'Darth Vader or Sauron'... Candidly, I'd rather pick neither.”

Consultant

“We can still buy THC drinks and now you can sports bet, so who cares about this office anymore?”

Consultant

“This would be the funniest race for the GOP to lose. But they won't.”

Consultant
In the race for Texas attorney general, which candidate will finish first?
62 responses
Mayes Middleton
52 picks
Nathan Johnson
10 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Mayes has too much money and is noncontroversial for the most part. Nathan Johnson is a good candidate but doesn't have a prayer.”

Other

“Mayes is an up and comer who is 100% philosophically correct and will take the AG's office to a new level.”

Other

“Money Mayes Middleton, he can't raise money, but boy does he have a lot in his pockets. Mayes thinks this is his stepping stone for higher office, doubt it.”

Consultant

“Middleton will win and everyone will forget that he exists”

Consultant
In the race for Texas railroad commissioner, which candidate will finish first?
62 responses
Jon Rosenthal
33 picks
Bo French
29 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“RIP to Jim Wright. Miss him already.”

Consultant

“God bless Arch Manning.”

Consultant

“I am as shocked as anyone that Ken Paxton somehow isn’t the worst GOP statewide candidate this cycle.”

Consultant

“Bet Bo gets the most votes of all the Rep statewide candidates. (mostly due to his weak opponent.)”

Consultant

“Probably the only downballot that will flip. Losing key support of your party is a huge misstep. Bo should go back to his private equity business.”

Consultant

Congress

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the race for CD-15, which candidate will finish first?
61 responses
Bobby Pulido
54 picks
Monica De La Cruz
7 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Pulido is like a Mexican Trump. Will take this spot.”

Reporter

“desvelado y sin amor”

Consultant

“Big upset here and it won't be as close as people think”

Other

“Hispanic Justin Bieber is going to win. She told everyone in South Texas how much Trump loved her. Where is he now if this love is so profound? Now that Crenshaw is out, she's probably the least liked Member amongst their own constiutents.”

Consultant
In the race for CD-28, which candidate will finish first?
60 responses
Henry Cuellar
54 picks
Tano Tijerina
6 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Corruption tanks candidates.”

Consultant

“Trump overperformed in this district relative to other Republicans in 2024, there's no reason to believe the redistricting based on that year will actually make the Republican win.”

Reporter

“Henry Cuellar is, without doubt, the most talented politician in the state of Texas. Who among us hasn't had a brief fling with Azerbaijan”

Consultant

“Unfortunately it's not Tano's time. Tano is the most talented politician in TX. He got screwed with the cycle. He'll be back and he should run for Governor.”

Consultant
In the race for CD-34, which candidate will finish first?
59 responses
Vicente Gonzalez
51 picks
Eric Flores
8 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Keep an eye on Eric, he'll get a plum appointment after this race.”

Consultant

“Vicente will once again overcome the obstacles he placed in his own way to secure a narrow but safe victory.”

Consultant

“Eric is too pretty for South Texas. Mr. 10% Jr., South Texans didn't forget about his fathers indictment”

Consultant

“This race will prove to be the biggest waste of money on a seat that was being battled for in the wrong election cycle. Gonzalez is vulnerable, but not in an election year the top of the R ticket are indiscernible from guests on the Jerry Springer Show.”

Other

Texas Senate

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the race for SD-9, which candidate will finish first?
61 responses
Taylor Rehmet
47 picks
Leigh Wambsganss
14 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Ha.”

Consultant

“Dem enthusiam is big in Tarrant, big part because of U.S. Senate but also SD-9. Possibly going to help take down a lot of local Republican incumbents in Tarrant.”

Other

“Leigh, because Dan Patrick said so”

Consultant

Texas House

Republican Democrat Neutral
In the race for HD-34, which candidate will finish first?
55 responses
Stephanie Guerrero Sáenz
30 picks
Denise Villalobos
25 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“one of the most underqualified democrats we've had run in a seat ever. Terrible candidate. But luckily you don't need a good candidate to retire Denise lol”

Other

“I picked the one who sounded like a republican. dont know either of these people”

Consultant

“It could be a coattails situation, but Denise is well-liked in the district and Stephanie is hard to work with.”

Other
In the race for HD-37, which candidate will finish first?
49 responses
Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa Jr.
30 picks
Janie Lopez
19 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“If she loses, it won't be for a lack of effort or resources.”

Consultant

“Democrats could have won this seat but due to their exceptional talent for not recruiting or supporting quality candidates, and general neglect of South Texas, Janie's triumphant reign shall continue.”

Consultant

“Janie's team has been running a heavy ground-game in the district since August. Her team was anticipating the storm and battened down the hatches earlier than most R races in the state.”

Other
In the race for HD-52, which candidate will finish first?
55 responses
Chris Jimenez
31 picks
Caroline Harris Davila
24 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Serious analysis: If Caroline Harris-Davila was a more moderate candidate, this race wouldn't be competitive. She consistently voted like a Tea Party republican in a district that wants a Lyle Larson”

Consultant

“Nobody in the Legislature does more block walking than CHD – nobody”

Other

“PACs are sending out scary mailers about Jimenez. That means they're worried. I've said from the start that the redistricting wasn't drawn as strongly as the GOP seemed to think it was.”

Other
In the race for HD-63, which candidate will finish first?
53 responses
Ben Bumgarner
45 picks
Denise Wooten
8 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Bumgarner will crush Wooten as she is not engaged with the District and not showing up.”

Other

“Denise Who-ten?”

Consultant
In the race for HD-80, which candidate will finish first?
50 responses
Don McLaughlin Jr.
38 picks
Cecilia Castellano
12 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Voters will once again choose not to hold their elected officials accountable for their failings in 2022.”

Consultant

“You can't beat big Don in his hometown.”

Consultant
In the race for HD-94, which candidate will finish first?
49 responses
Cheryl Bean
27 picks
Katie O'Brien Duzan
22 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Tarrant may go blue, Rehmet may win SD9, but there will no state house pickups for Dems in Tarrant.”

Consultant

“We'll see if Mrs. Bean gets to Austin”

Consultant

“It'll come down to how the suburban folks feel about charter schools and vouchers.”

Other
In the race for HD-112, which candidate will finish first?
54 responses
Angie Chen Button
34 picks
Zach Herbert
20 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Angie is the suburban Dallas Susan Collins.”

Consultant

“RIP Angie Chen Button, my favorite Texan.”

Consultant

“Button always finds a way”

Consultant
In the race for HD-118, which candidate will finish first?
51 responses
Kristian Carranza
44 picks
Jorge Borrego
7 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“It's all but guaranteed that Carranza wins this.”

Other

“It was over when Borrego posted about smoking meth, crack, weed, doing coke, and taking steroids. Amateur.”

Consultant

“Borrego can't stay out of his own way”

Other
In the race for HD-121, which candidate will finish first?
51 responses
Marc LaHood
26 picks
Zack Dunn
25 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“Dunn winning this will be one of the major upsets down ballot on Election Night.”

Other

“LaHood will get it done”

Other

“This race could end up being one of the biggest the casualties of Governor Abbott's school voucher push.”

Other
In the race for HD-132, which candidate will finish first?
49 responses
Mike Schofield
40 picks
Sara McGee
9 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“It will be funny is McGee wins considering the smack she talks online.”

Reporter

“Rule #1: Never tweet!”

Other

“Sara McGee is really annoying on Twitter. The voters probably do not know that, but if they did Schofield would be a top performing Republican.”

Consultant
In the race for HD-138, which candidate will finish first?
51 responses
Lacey Hull
39 picks
Tyler Smith
12 picks
Best Quotes on This Race

“sadly texans do still care about guns”

Other

“This one may be personal bias but Smith has run a savvy campaign against a very talented opponent. This will be one of the key races to watch as we determine if Dems are having a good or great night.”

Consultant

“Lacey has been bullet proof so far. Why change now”

Consultant